Catching a frisbee is difficult. Doing so successfully requires the catcher to weigh a complex array of physical and atmospheric factors, among them wind speed and frisbee rotation. Were a physicist to write down frisbee-catching as an optimal control problem, they would need to understand and apply Newton’s Law of Gravity. Yet despite this complexity, catching a frisbee is remarkably common. Casual empiricism reveals that it is not an activity only undertaken by those with a Doctorate in physics. It is a task that an average dog can master. Indeed some, such as border collies, are better at frisbee-catching than humans. So what is the secret of the dog’s success? The answer, as in many other areas of complex decision-making, is simple. Or rather, it is to keep it simple. For studies have shown that the frisbee-catching dog follows the simplest of rules of thumb: run at a speed so that the angle of gaze to the frisbee remains roughly constant. Humans follow an identical rule of thumb. Catching a crisis, like catching a frisbee, is difficult. Doing so requires the regulator to weigh a complex array of financial and psychological factors, among them innovation and risk appetite. Were an economist to write down crisis-catching as an optimal control problem, they would probably have to ask a physicist for help. Yet despite this complexity, efforts to catch the crisis frisbee have continued to escalate. Casual empiricism reveals an ever-growing number of regulators, some with a Doctorate in physics. Ever-larger litters have not, however, obviously improved watchdogs’ frisbee-catching abilities. No regulator had the foresight to predict the financial crisis, although some have since exhibited supernatural powers of hindsight. So what is the secret of the watchdogs’ failure? The answer is simple. Or rather, it is complexity. Azizonomics: Too Big to UnderstandI probably just liked the dog metaphor. It's the simple things in life that even a lower level of being can understand even if economists cannot. I'd imagine it as Toto pulling back the curtain on the Wizard of Oz (the financial wizards of technique) or perhaps a lower level of being pulling back the curtain on the psychopathic $atan, for all his higher levels of intelligence and knowledge. (Yes, I'm comparing banksters to Satan. But I wouldn't over do it, given that Judas is part of the "root of all evil" ($$$$) type of patterns within us all.)
Monday, December 10, 2012
Reminds me of the simple truths of ID philosophy vs. the profitable "scientific consensus" manufactured by a ruling class (no matter what can be experienced in the real world)......
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